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I. General Context
In an international context marked by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, energy markets are experiencing a rapid increase in crude oil and refined product prices, in an environment characterized by increased volatility and uncertainties affecting supply conditions.
As an importer of petroleum products, Morocco is particularly exposed to these developments, especially for diesel and gasoline, whose international fluctuations directly influence supply conditions and price formation at the national level.
In this context, the Competition Council, in line with its missions of monitoring and ensuring the competitive functioning of markets, conducted hearings with key players in the diesel and gasoline distribution market to examine the consistency and level of correlation between international price variations from March 1st to March 16, 2026, and their impact on purchasing costs and selling prices applied at the national level.
This note aims to analyze the evolution of refined product prices internationally during this period, as well as their transmission to pump prices starting from March 16. This analysis will be complemented within the monthly market monitoring framework, integrating the examination of quotations, purchase costs, selling prices, and gross margins.
II. Analysis of the correlation between the variation in international prices of refined diesel and gasoline and their pump prices in Morocco
Prior to analyzing the variations in CIF quotations for diesel and gasoline, as well as pump prices at the national level, it should be noted that the quotations used in this analysis correspond to the prices of refined products observed in the North-West European market (NWE), based on transactions in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) area.
These quotations are a crucial reference for determining the supply prices of Moroccan operators, whose purchases are mostly made under contracts indexed to these markets.
Table n° 1: Variation in CIF quotations and pump prices for diesel and gasoline at the national level between March 1st and March 16, 2026.
Source: Based on data provided by the Ministry of Energy Transition and Sustainable Development.
Comparing the variations in CIF quotations for refined diesel and gasoline with pump prices reveals significant differences during the period from March 1st to March 16, 2026, in a context marked by sustained increases in international quotations.
For diesel, the increase in international quotations is +2.92 DH/L, while pump prices show an increase of +2.03 DH/L. These changes reflect a partial impact of the increase in quotations on selling prices applied at the national level from March 16, with a difference of -0.89 DH/L, corresponding to an estimated impact rate of 69.5%.
Regarding gasoline, international quotations show an increase of +1.26 DH/L, while pump prices rise by +1.43 DH/L. This results in a difference of +0.17 DH/L.
Overall, the observed changes during the analyzed period reveal relatively differentiated transmission gaps from one operator to another, indicating heterogeneity in adjustments of pump prices in relation to international quotation variations.
Furthermore, despite the average increase in pump prices from March 16 being around +2 DH/L for diesel and nearly +1.4 DH/L for gasoline, examination of the data provided by the operators and their statements during the meetings held for this purpose indicates that selling prices applied by operators to gas station managers were differentiated, with differences amounting to nearly 0.20 DH/L for diesel, representing nearly 10% of the average observed increase.
Finally, regarding the bi-monthly price adjustment schedule on the 1st and 16th of each month, statements from the operators indicate that this periodicity is a practice inherited from the old regulation before the liberalization of diesel and gasoline prices, which has continued to be applied by sector operators. This periodicity is based on the same pricing formula used during the price regulation period, largely indexed on the arithmetic average of international quotations recorded in the previous fortnight.
While this organization contributes to a certain supply stability, smoothing the effects of price variations over the fortnight and providing better predictability for operators and the market, it can also involve price adjustment dynamics showing similarities among sector operators. In this regard, the Council intends to continue its exchanges with sector operators to examine and explore the possibility of evolving this market practice to enhance competitive dynamics, without compromising the imperatives related to supply security, market stability, and the necessary visibility for economic actors.
Moreover, analysis of the data provided, as well as statements collected from operators and representatives of gas station managers, suggests that price revisions do not occur strictly synchronized at the gas station level, whether managed directly or operated by independent operators.
In this context, despite potential upstream discrepancies in the timing or extent of adjustments in selling prices practiced by wholesale distributors, it is observed that at the retail level, gas stations tend to adjust their prices in reference to those practiced in their immediate environment. This adaptation dynamic, linked to the essentially local nature of competition in the retail fuel distribution market and the homogeneous nature of the products involved, contributes to a form of price alignment at the local level.
Conclusion
Despite the sustained increase in international quotations for refined diesel and gasoline during the period from March 1st to March 16, 2026, the transmission of these changes to pump prices in Morocco appears differentiated by product. For diesel, the increase recorded in international quotations was not fully reflected in selling prices, with a significant difference of -0.89 DH/L, while for gasoline, this transmission exceeded the international increase (+0.17 DH/L).
Furthermore, the selling prices applied by operators to gas station managers were differentiated, with differences amounting to nearly 0.20 DH/L for diesel, representing nearly 10% of the average observed increase. Despite these slight discrepancies upstream, local competition conditions lead to price alignment behaviors at the retail level.
Finally, regarding the bi-monthly price adjustment schedule, the Council has initiated discussions with sector stakeholders to examine and explore the possibility of evolving this market practice to improve its competitive functioning, while preserving its balances.
